Talk:Aurora-1 Schematic/@comment-87.212.161.169-20120609082128/@comment-140.239.118.250-20120613134425

Technically, your chance to get an item that is dropped once in 500 attacks is 1/500 for one attack 0r p=0.002. Your chance to get it in two attacks is not 0.004, but instead (1-(0.998^2)). Your chance to get it in N attacks is (1-(0.998^N)). The bad news is that if it's 1/500, your chance to get it in 500 attacks is 63%. Why?

One in 500 is the "expected value" meaning if thousands of people each attack Maar bases of the appropriate level 500 times, the average number of Aurora-1 Schematics they will get is 1. Some will win 2, some rare few will win 3 or more, most will win at least 1. But 37% will win 0. It averages to 1 each, but some win 2, and some win 0.

average(2+2+2+1+1+1+1+0+0+0) = 1, 70% are 1 or more; 30% are 0

So you should HOPE to win an A-1 schematic in 500 attacks. But you might need more (or less!). 95% of users will have looted a schematic by 1,496 attacks (given a 1/500 drop rate).